PIP-II Document 4414-v2

PIP-II Risk MC Model (PRA file)

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Submitted by:
Lucas Taylor
Updated by:
Lucas Taylor
Document Created:
14 Jan 2020, 06:37
Contents Revised:
17 Jan 2020, 02:21
Metadata Revised:
17 Jan 2020, 02:49
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14 Jan 2020, 06:37
Primavera risk analysis files used for the PIP-II risk analysis for the CD-2/3a review (Jan 2020).

The baseline .PLAN file includes the baseline P6 schedule. The base costs are all zeroed out (such that results of the MC correspond only to the additional costs due to risk events).

The .RRX file is the risk register.

The impacted .PLAN file includes all risks from the risk register (opportunities and threats).

The output .RSK file includes the results of the risk analysis. The cost impacts reflect the cost of all risk events, such that the 90% CL of the cost PDF corresponds to the direct risk contingency at 90% CL.

Additional risk contingency must be included for standing army and escalation burn rate costs. This is computed separately using MS Excel, including PRA results for various L2 completion dates (at 90% CL) and estimated L2 burn rate costs, as described in the PIP-II Risk Management Plan (PIP-II-doc-163). (Note: PRA does not support the time-dependent resource rates required to model escalation burn rate costs).

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Notes and Changes:
Add files:
1) Impacted PLAN file
2) Output RSK file
Associated with Events:
held on 06 Nov 2018 in AD/Huddle
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